Did you miss the recent move on crude?
If you answered, yes. Don’t worry
Was it relatively easy to look at it after the fact and think, “Yeah… I should’ve seen that coming”?
Sure.
Does that mean you should deviate from your plan to make somewhat educated guesses?
Absolutely not.
Because if your future and your entire plan hinges on making a couple correct guesses, you really need to revisit your plan.
A lot of people assume that because we’re “professionals,” we’re going to know the markets inside and out — and more importantly, that we’re going to be able to predict them.
Yes, we should keep updated on what’s happening for obvious reasons. Markets matter. Economic conditions matter. Headlines matter. We pay attention because it’s our job to be informed.
But it’s important to say this clearly:
Our job isn’t to guess the market swings on behalf of our clients.
Our job is to create a solid plan that considers markets — both present and historical — and is consistent with a client’s goals and risk tolerance… and then stick to it.
Not because we’re dogmatic.
Because we’re human.
The Market Doesn’t Just Move Your Portfolio — It Moves You
Most people don’t change their plan because the numbers changed.
They change their plan because their feelings changed.
When markets are calm, sticking to a plan feels easy. Everyone is a long-term investor.
When markets rip higher, the plan suddenly feels “too conservative.”
When markets drop, the plan suddenly feels “too risky.”
Same person. Same goals. Same timeline.
Different headline. Different mood.
And this is the part that doesn’t get talked about enough:
the temptation to change your plan usually shows up when your emotions are loudest.
That’s exactly when you’re least likely to make a good decision.
A Good Plan Isn’t Rigid. It’s Grounded.
Let’s be clear: plans should change when life changes.
A plan should adjust when:
- you retire earlier than expected
- you sell a business
- your health changes
- a spouse passes away
- you become an executor
- you receive an inheritance
- your priorities shift
That’s real life. That’s what planning is for.
But plans shouldn’t change because:
- something had a strong few days
- a stock is suddenly “all anyone is talking about”
- your friend made money on something you don’t own
- the news cycle is loud
- your portfolio is down and it feels uncomfortable
Those are feeling-based changes, not life-based changes.
Plans may change because life changes. They shouldn’t change because our feelings change.
“But What If I’m Right?”
You might be.
That’s what makes this so tempting.
You can be right once, twice, even a handful of times — and still end up worse off.
Because market timing doesn’t require one correct call. It requires a string of them:
- when to get in
- how much to put in
- when to take profits
- when to get out
- when to rotate to the next thing
- when to stop
That’s a lot of pressure to place on any investor – professional or not.
And if your entire retirement, your estate plan, and your family’s future depend on making those guesses consistently… that’s a fragile foundation.
What “Sticking to the Plan” Actually Means
When people hear “stick to the plan,” sometimes they picture doing nothing forever.
That’s not what we mean.
A good plan still has movement – but it’s intentional movement:
- rebalancing when allocations drift
- adjusting risk as your time horizon changes
- revisiting goals annually (or when life changes)
- making tax-aware decisions (not headline-aware decisions)
That’s active planning.
Not reactive trading.
A Simple Filter You Can Use
If you ever feel the urge to make a big move because something moved quickly — up or down — run it through this:
1) Did my goals change?
If no, pause.
2) Did my time horizon change?
If no, pause.
3) Did my risk tolerance change… or did my emotions change?
Be honest. Feeling anxious doesn’t automatically mean your risk tolerance changed.
4) Am I doing this because I have a rule… or because I have a feeling?
Rules can be tested. Feelings can’t.
The Most Underrated Benefit of Planning
Most people think planning is about returns. It’s not.
Planning is about behavior.
It’s about building a structure that keeps you from sabotaging yourself when things get exciting or scary — and creating a strategy that still works even when headlines change (because they always do).
Final Thought
So yes — you missed the move.
But the bigger point is this:
If your plan only works when you guess correctly, it’s not really a plan.
A real plan accounts for uncertainty – and still gets you where you want to go.
That’s the job: not to guess… but to guide.